I dare say, Kes HAS been unerringly correct in about 1% of his predictions.
However, if all had come true, or even just a fraction more, we'd be so laced
in darkness, paranoia, and, how shall I say this, the raping of small children
and women, that we'd all be wound up as tight as tops.
The truth is, Kes, while at times a terribly coherent yet utterly disrespectful
knight, is generally entirely off the mark. This being said, the few truths he
does speak can easily be discounted as the mere voicing of that common knowledge
which most of the rest of us elder players can plainly see. When Long Night items
are being slowly stocked by one or two guilds of the Thakrian persuasion, and
when those of the opposite cult seem to be doing nothing to act against it, there
is little doubt this most disturbing of rituals shall come to pass.
When the relations between two cities, namely Parrius and Mercinae, are reaching
a fevered pitch as neither can come to terms with the other, something Kes was well
aware of while he was allowed to call himself a member and politician of one of said
cities, it isn't hard to see how war is a distinct and likely possibility. When the
fighters of another city are, generally, far better than those of another, it isn't
hard to discover the reasons why he quotes that raping and pillaging shall become
rampant across the land.
Simply put, Kes has his moments, but generally, his posts are sprouted from nothing
else but the public acknowledgement that sitting in the pool will do nothing to
change the events which are likely going to occur.
Fare thee well and tempt not the Fates,
Written by my hand on the 12th of Cloudburst, in the year 1028.